Is Linux dead on the desktop?

Having some time off during the holidays allows me catch up a bit on my reading. After reading Mr.Robert Strohmeyer, article on PCWorld titled “Desktop Linux: The Dream Is Dead” in which he states:

“Despite phenomenal security and stability–and amazing strides in usability, performance, and compatibility–Linux simply isn’t catching on with desktop users. And if there ever was a chance for desktop Linux to succeed, that ship has long since sunk”

Note that he is talking about desktop Linux not Linux in the server market where it continues to grow. Nor is he talking about Linux on mobile devices (like Google’s Android) or on embedded devices. He is looking at the market where Windows OS and Mac OS dominate, while Linux remains around 1%.

I have to say that even with the beautiful Ubuntu distribution, I have to agree, at least for the foreseeable future. At one time when the new category of netbooks first arrived, I thought this was the place that desktop Linux would finally show end users how far it had come. But then Microsoft dropped the price manufactures paid to license XP, and extended it’s support window, and suddenly, all the netbooks were running XP. Why did this transition take place? His reason is as straight forward as it is depressing true.

“Ultimately, Linux is doomed on the desktop because of a critical lack of content. And that lack of content owes its existence to two key factors: the fragmentation of the Linux platform, and the fierce ideology of the open-source community at large.”

At some point developers need to make some money off of their efforts. They don’t need to make a lot on each sell, i.e. reference the robust applications market (current at over 300,000 applications) on the iPhone that cost less than $10.00 apiece. But they do need some revenue to keep them interested in enhancing the software. As James Goshling noted in a recent blog posting:

“Developers follow the money. They aren’t evil, they just need to be fed and housed. Unless the Linux community gets over the whole “free” thing on the desktop, Strohmeyer’s pronouncement of death will hold.”

Again, sad but true.